Temperature is a poor proxy for synergistic climate forcing of plankton evolution

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from The Royal Society via the DOI in this record.Abundance data available in Figshare via the link in this record.Changes in biodiversity at all levels from molecules to ecosystems are often linked to climate change, which is widely represented univariately by temperature. A global environmental driving mechanism of biodiversity dynamics is thus implied by the strong correlation between temperature proxies and diversity patterns in a wide variety of fauna and flora. Yet climate consists of many interacting variables. Species likely respond to the entire climate system as opposed to its individual facets. Here, we examine ecological and morphological traits of 12,629 individuals of two species of planktonic foraminifera with similar ecologies but contrasting evolutionary outcomes. Our results show that morphological and ecological changes are correlated to the interactions between multiple environmental factors. Models including interactions between climate variables explain at least twice as much variation in size, shape and abundance changes as models assuming that climate parameters operate independently. No dominant climatic driver can be identified: temperature alone explains remarkably little variation through our highly resolved temporal sequences, implying that a multivariate approach is required to understand evolutionary response to abiotic forcing. Our results caution against the use of a ‘silver bullet’ environmental parameter to represent global climate while studying evolutionary responses to abiotic change, and show that more comprehensive reconstruction of paleobiological dynamics requires multiple biotic and abiotic dimensions.NERC Advanced Research Fellowship NE/J018163/1Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Awar

岡山大学埋蔵文化財調査研究センター報 第51号

Summary: Phenotypes are often environmentally dependent, which requires organisms to track environmental change. The challenge for organisms is to construct phenotypes using the most accurate environmental cue. Here, we use a quantitative genetic model of adaptation by additive genetic variance, within- and transgenerational plasticity via linear reaction norms and indirect genetic effects respectively. We show how the relative influence on the eventual phenotype of these components depends on the predictability of environmental change (fast or slow, sinusoidal or stochastic) and the developmental lag τ between when the environment is perceived and when selection acts. We then decompose expected mean fitness into three components (variance load, adaptation and fluctuation load) to study the fitness costs of within- and transgenerational plasticity. A strongly negative maternal effect coefficient m minimizes the variance load, but a strongly positive m minimises the fluctuation load. The adaptation term is maximized closer to zero, with positive or negative m preferred under different environmental scenarios. Phenotypic plasticity is higher when τ is shorter and when the environment changes frequently between seasonal extremes. Expected mean population fitness is highest away from highest observed levels of phenotypic plasticity. Within- and transgenerational plasticity act in concert to deliver well-adapted phenotypes, which emphasizes the need to study both simultaneously when investigating phenotypic evolution. © 2013 British Ecological Society

The Dynamics of Diachronous Extinction Associated with Climatic Deterioration near the Neogene/Quaternary Boundary

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordTo predict extinction we must understand the processes leading to terminal population decline. Once a critical threshold of population size is reached, small environmental perturbations can push a species over the cliff-edge to extinction, so the main drivers of extinction are the factors that cause the initial reduction in population size. Most studies of population decline leading up to extinction focus on modern species in a human-dominated world. The drivers of population decline leading to non-human mediated extinctions are less well known but changes in climate are arguably the most widely invoked mechanism. Here, we report data on >16,000 individuals of the planktonic foraminifer Globoconella puncticulata from six sites in the Atlantic Ocean along a 83 degree-long latitudinal transect, over a 600,000-year interval leading up to the species’ global extinction during the late Pliocene-earliest Pleistocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. We show changes in geographic range, abundance and body size. We find that populations do not follow a North-to-South sequence in extinction as Earth cooled and developed large ice sheets in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Instead, our results suggest that (1) populations are differentially adapted to local environmental conditions such as nutrient availability, (2) population dynamics in core populations differ from those at the edge of their range, and (3) individual population responses to external pressures are essential to understanding the drivers of global extinction. Our study demonstrates the potential to transform our understanding of extinction dynamics through spatially replicated sampling of the highly-resolved marine microfossil record

The unknown planktonic foraminiferal pioneer Henry A. Buckley and his collection at The Natural History Museum, London

© 2017 The Author(s) This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/). The version attached is the published pdf

Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

Environmental Predictors of Diversity in Recent Planktonic Foraminifera as Recorded in Marine Sediments

© 2016 Fenton et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. [4.0 license]. The attached file is the published version of the article

The Molecular Phylogenetic Signature of Clades in Decline

Molecular phylogenies have been used to study the diversification of many clades. However, current methods for inferring diversification dynamics from molecular phylogenies ignore the possibility that clades may be decreasing in diversity, despite the fact that the fossil record shows this to be the case for many groups. Here we investigate the molecular phylogenetic signature of decreasing diversity using the most widely used statistic for inferring diversity dynamics from molecular phylogenies, the γ statistic. We show that if a clade is in decline its molecular phylogeny may show evidence of the decrease in the diversification rate that occurred between its diversification and decline phases. The ability to detect the change in diversification rate depends largely on the ratio of the speciation rates of the diversification and decline phases, the higher the ratio the stronger the signal of the change in diversification rate. Consequently, molecular phylogenies of clades in relative rapid decline do not carry a signature of their decreasing diversification. Further, the signal of the change in diversification rate, if present, declines as the diversity drop. Unfortunately, the molecular signature of clades in decline is the same as the signature produced by diversity dependent diversification. Given this similarity, and the inability of current methods to detect declining diversity, it is likely that some of the extant clades that show a decrease in diversification rate, currently interpreted as evidence for diversity dependent diversification, are in fact in decline. Unless methods can be developed that can discriminate between the different modes of diversification, specifically diversity dependent diversification and declining diversity, we will need the fossil record, or data from some other source, to distinguish between these very different diversity trajectories

Inferring transient dynamics of human populations from matrix non-normality

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.In our increasingly unstable and unpredictable world, population dynamics rarely settle uniformly to long-term behaviour. However, projecting period-by-period through the preceding fluctuations is more data-intensive and analytically involved than evaluating at equilibrium. To efficiently model populations and best inform policy, we require pragmatic suggestions as to when it is necessary to incorporate short-term transient dynamics and their effect on eventual projected population size. To estimate this need for matrix population modelling, we adopt a linear algebraic quantity known as non-normality. Matrix non-normality is distinct from normality in the Gaussian sense, and indicates the amplificatory potential of the population projection matrix given a particular population vector. In this paper, we compare and contrast three well-regarded metrics of non-normality, which were calculated for over 1000 age-structured human population projection matrices from 42 European countries in the period 1960 to 2014. Non-normality increased over time, mirroring the indices of transient dynamics that peaked around the millennium. By standardising the matrices to focus on transient dynamics and not changes in the asymptotic growth rate, we show that the damping ratio is an uninformative predictor of whether a population is prone to transient booms or busts in its size. These analyses suggest that population ecology approaches to inferring transient dynamics have too often relied on suboptimal analytical tools focussed on an initial population vector rather than the capacity of the life cycle to amplify or dampen transient fluctuations. Finally, we introduce the engineering technique of pseudospectra analysis to population ecology, which, like matrix non-normality, provides a more complete description of the transient fluctuations than the damping ratio. Pseudospectra analysis could further support non-normality assessment to enable a greater understanding of when we might expect transient phases to impact eventual population dynamics.This work was funded by Wellcome Trust New Investigator 103780 to TE, who is also funded by NERC Fellowship NE/J018163/1. JB gratefully acknowledges the ESRC Centre for Population Change ES/K007394/1

Решение оптимизационных задач для систем массового обслуживання с отказами в условиях неопределенности

Построены математические модели расчета показателей качества функционирования вычислительных сетей, которые можно представить в виде сетей массового обслуживания с отказами. Сформулированы задачи оптимизации показателей качества функционирования таких сетей при заданных ограничениях на максимальную пропускную способность каналов связи и на выделяемые для модернизации сети ресурсы. Построены алгоритмы, которые позволяют решать поставленные оптимизационные задачи в рамках оговоренных ограничений

Population genomics applications for conservation: the case of the tropical dry forest dweller Peromyscus melanophrys

Recent advances in genomic sequencing have opened new horizons in the study of population genetics and evolution in non-model organisms. However, very few population genomic studies have been performed on wild mammals to understand how the landscape affects the genetic structure of populations, useful information for the conservation of biodiversity. Here, we applied a genomic approach to evaluate the relationship between habitat features and genetic patterns at spatial and temporal scales in an endangered ecosystem, the Tropical Dry Forest (TDF). We studied populations of the Plateau deer mouse Peromyscus melanophrys to analyse its genomic diversity and structure in a TDF protected area in the Huautla Mountain Range (HMR), Mexico based on 8,209 SNPs obtained through Genotyping-by-Sequencing. At a spatial scale, we found a significant signature of isolation-by-distance, few significant differences in genetic diversity indices among study sites, and no significant differences between habitats with different levels of human perturbation. At a temporal scale, while genetic diversity levels fluctuated significantly over time, neither seasonality nor disturbance levels had a significant effect. Also, outlier analysis revealed loci potentially under selection. Our results suggest that the population genetics of P. melanophrys may be little impacted by anthropogenic disturbances, or by natural spatial and temporal habitat heterogeneity in our study area. The genome-wide approach adopted here provides data of value for conservation planning, and a baseline to be used as a reference for future studies on the effects of habitat fragmentation and seasonality in the HMR and in TDF